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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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quinta-feira, 15 de novembro de 2012

Unreformable France? - Editorial The Economist

O General De Gaulle teria dito, uma vez, que era difícil governar um país com 600 tipos (será?) de queijos. Pode ser.
Mas, os queijos tem menos a ver, agora, com a capacidade dos dirigentes de conter a voracidade estatal -- de políticos e funcionários públicos -- e a preferência geral do público por tudo que é estatal, enfim, um pouco como no Brasil. Só que eles dispõem de menos condições, agora, para reformas, já que não podem mais contar com a arma (fácil?) da desvalorização, e muitos mecanismos de políticas setoriais, hoje, são comunitários.
Será que os franceses vão se colocar de acordo sobre uma agenda de reformas em prol da competitividade do país, de suas empresas? Minha opinião é que isso não ocorrerá facilmente, e as reformas que serão feitas terão de aproveitar situações de crise. E ainda faz falta um verdadeiro estadista, como a Thatcher, por exemplo, para enfrentar as máfias sindicais e os grupos de interesse especial.
Vamos ver..., mas o Brasil também deveria empreender o seu processo de reformas, que como sabemos, não ocorrerá na dimensão e na profundidade requeridas.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 


France and the euro

The time-bomb at the heart of Europe

Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe’s single currency

THE threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.
The country has always been at the heart of the euro, as of the European Union. President François Mitterrand argued for the single currency because he hoped to bolster French influence in an EU that would otherwise fall under the sway of a unified Germany. France has gained from the euro: it is borrowing at record low rates and has avoided the troubles of the Mediterranean. Yet even before May, when François Hollande became the country’s first Socialist president since Mitterrand, France had ceded leadership in the euro crisis to Germany. And now its economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.
As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt. Even as other EU countries have curbed the reach of the state, it has grown in France to consume almost 57% of GDP, the highest share in the euro zone. Because of the failure to balance a single budget since 1981, public debt has risen from 22% of GDP then to over 90% now.
The business climate in France has also worsened. French firms are burdened by overly rigid labour- and product-market regulation, exceptionally high taxes and the euro zone’s heaviest social charges on payrolls. Not surprisingly, new companies are rare. France has fewer small and medium-sized enterprises, today’s engines of job growth, than Germany, Italy or Britain. The economy is stagnant, may tip into recession this quarter and will barely grow next year. Over 10% of the workforce, and over 25% of the young, are jobless. The external current-account deficit has swung from a small surplus in 1999 into one of the euro zone’s biggest deficits. In short, too many of France’s firms are uncompetitive and the country’s bloated government is living beyond its means.
Hollande at bay
With enough boldness and grit, Mr Hollande could now reform France. His party holds power in the legislature and in almost all the regions. The left should be better able than the right to persuade the unions to accept change. Mr Hollande has acknowledged that France lacks competitiveness. And, encouragingly, he has recently promised to implement many of the changes recommended in a new report by Louis Gallois, a businessman, including reducing the burden of social charges on companies. The president wants to make the labour market more flexible. This week he even talked of the excessive size of the state, promising to “do better, while spending less”.
Yet set against the gravity of France’s economic problems, Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted. Why should business believe him when he has already pushed through a string of leftish measures, including a 75% top income-tax rate, increased taxes on companies, wealth, capital gains and dividends, a higher minimum wage and a partial rollback of a previously accepted rise in the pension age? No wonder so many would-be entrepreneurs are talking of leaving the country.
 Explore our interactive guide to Europe's troubled economies
European governments that have undertaken big reforms have done so because there was a deep sense of crisis, because voters believed there was no alternative and because political leaders had the conviction that change was unavoidable. None of this describes Mr Hollande or France. During the election campaign, Mr Hollande barely mentioned the need for business-friendly reform, focusing instead on ending austerity. His Socialist Party remains unmodernised and hostile to capitalism: since he began to warn about France’s competitiveness, his approval rating has plunged. Worse, France is aiming at a moving target. All euro-zone countries are making structural reforms, and mostly faster and more extensively than France is doing (see article). The IMF recently warned that France risks being left behind by Italy and Spain.
At stake is not just the future of France, but that of the euro. Mr Hollande has correctly badgered Angela Merkel for pushing austerity too hard. But he has hidden behind his napkin when it comes to the political integration needed to solve the euro crisis. There has to be greater European-level control over national economic policies. France has reluctantly ratified the recent fiscal compact, which gives Brussels extra budgetary powers. But neither the elite nor the voters are yet prepared to transfer more sovereignty, just as they are unprepared for deep structural reforms. While most countries discuss how much sovereignty they will have to give up, France is resolutely avoiding any debate on the future of Europe. Mr Hollande was badly burned in 2005 when voters rejected the EU constitutional treaty after his party split down the middle. A repeat of that would pitch the single currency into chaos.
Too big not to succeed?
Our most recent special report on a big European country (in June 2011) focused on Italy’s failure to reform under Silvio Berlusconi; by the end of the year he was out—and change had begun. So far investors have been indulgent of France; indeed, long-term interest rates have fallen a bit. But sooner or later the centime will drop. You cannot defy economics for long.
Unless Mr Hollande shows that he is genuinely committed to changing the path his country has been on for the past 30 years, France will lose the faith of investors—and of Germany. As several euro-zone countries have found, sentiment in the markets can shift quickly. The crisis could hit as early as next year. Previous European currency upheavals have often started elsewhere only to finish by engulfing France—and this time, too, France rather than Italy or Spain could be where the euro’s fate is decided. Mr Hollande does not have long to defuse the time-bomb at the heart of Europe.

4 comentários:

Anônimo disse...

"France has neither winter nor summer nor morals. Apart from these drawbacks it is a fine country. France has usually been governed by prostitutes." —Mark Twain

"The last time the French asked for 'more proof,' it came marching into Paris under a German flag." —David Letterman

"Next time there's a war in Europe, the loser has to keep France."-Anonymous (talvez George Patton!)

"If you want to visit Paris, the best time to go is during August, when there aren't any French people there."-Kenneth Stilling

"Another well-know Paris landmark is the Arc de Triomphe, a moving monument to the many brave men and women who have died trying to visit it, which we do not recommend because it's located in the middle of La Place de la traffic coming from All Directions at 114 Miles Per Hour."-Dave Barry (Only Travel Guide you'll ever need)

"You should definitely visit the Louvre, a world-famous art museum where you can view, at close range, the backs of thousands of other tourists trying to see the Mona Lisa."-Dave Barry (Only Travel Guide you'll ever need)

"Europeans, like some Americans, drive on the right side of the road,, except in England, where they drive on both sides of the road; Italy, where they drive on the sidewalk, and France, where if necessary they will follow you right into the hotel lobby."-Dave Barry (Only Travel Guide you'll ever need)

"In Paris they just simply opened their eyes and stared when we spoke to them in French! We never did succeed in making those idiots undertand their own language."-Mark Twain

“Every Frenchman wants to enjoy one or more privileges; that’s the way he shows his passion for equality.” —Charles de Gaulle

An old saying: Raise your right hand if you like the French.... Raise both hands if you are French.

Vale!

Anônimo disse...

em complemento ao post anterior...

French Ban Fireworks at Euro Disney

(AP), Paris , March 5, 2003

"The French Government announced today that it is imposing a ban on the use of fireworks at Euro Disney. The decision comes the day after a nightly fireworks display at the park, located just 30 miles outside of Paris , caused the soldiers at a nearby French Army garrison to surrender to a group of Czech tourists."

Vale!



Anônimo disse...

... e como "pièce de résitance"...

"French Ban Fireworks at Euro Disney

(AP), Paris , March 5, 2003

The French Government announced today that it is imposing a ban on the use of fireworks at Euro Disney. The decision comes the day after a nightly fireworks display at the park, located just 30 miles outside of Paris , caused the soldiers at a nearby French Army garrison to surrender to a group of Czech tourists."

Vale!

Anônimo disse...

Caro Paulo,
O que você pensa do ressurgimento da Arena no Brasil? Acha que pode ser uma opção partidária interessante para a direita. Acha que vai impactar o PSDB em alguma medida?
Saudações,
Rodrigo